Spy agency alerts on potential mass crossings into Ceuta ahead of border crisis.

Amid ongoing tensions surrounding migration in the Iberian Peninsula, newly released intelligence documents shed light on a significant border crisis involving the Spanish enclave of Ceuta and Morocco. As thousands of migrants sought refuge in Spain from late July, these documents provide critical insights into the warnings issued by Spain’s intelligence services about the impending surge, while also raising questions regarding the preventive measures taken by both Spanish and Moroccan authorities during this humanitarian challenge.

Spain’s intelligence services were alerted to the possibility of mass migrant crossings into Ceuta shortly before an unprecedented influx occurred in late July, as indicated in a set of declassified documents. The release of these documents took place on September 10, against a backdrop of mounting protests in Ceuta, where citizens have been expressing their dissatisfaction with the Spanish government’s handling of the crisis and questioning Morocco’s involvement.

According to the declassified documents, on July 29, a day prior to the mass crossings, Spain’s National Intelligence Center (CNI) sent a WhatsApp message to the Spanish government delegation in Ceuta. This message warned about calls on social media for an “assault on the fence and by sea” scheduled for the following evening at 8 p.m. The communication highlighted the scale of the mobilization, which involved two separate groups with a combined following of approximately 180,000 on social media platforms.

In tandem, the CNI informed Moroccan intelligence agencies about the potential for migrants to breach the border by either climbing over the fence or swimming around it. The agency specifically noted that this situation could be exacerbated by Morocco’s national Throne Day celebrations, which occur on July 30.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has since downplayed claims that these warnings indicated a border crisis of the magnitude that unfolded in late July. He noted that while the situation had been monitored, there was no indication of the overwhelming scale of the event that transpired.

Despite ongoing discussions regarding Morocco’s role in the crisis, the Spanish Prime Minister asserted that no evidence suggested active encouragement from Moroccan authorities. In a leaked police report from July, however, allegations were made regarding “total permissiveness” from Moroccan law enforcement during the border surge. A specific intelligence document revealed that Moroccan authorities were likely not inciting the migratory wave but rather responding passively.

As of mid-September, the Spanish government reported that approximately 5,000 migrants and asylum seekers, including about 1,200 minors, remain in Ceuta. Local officials suggest the actual number may be considerably higher, potentially reaching up to 10,000 individuals. The city, with a resident population of roughly 84,000, is grappling with the implications of this humanitarian situation. In response, Madrid has pledged nearly 7 million in aid to assist those affected, as many remain without housing.

Critique of the Spanish government’s response has been fierce from opposition parties, who argue that the administration was aware of the situation and failed to act accordingly. Ester Munoz, a spokesperson for the right-wing Popular Party, specifically stated that the government was directly responsible for the crisis, claiming they had prior knowledge of the impending situation.

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