Morocco’s Elections Highlight Fragmentation, Low Voter Engagement, and Significant Comeback of the PJD Party

Morocco’s recent parliamentary elections have ushered in a significant shift in the political landscape, as voter participation plummeted to historically low levels. While the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) emerged as the largest party, capturing 97 seats, the overall turnout of 38.08 percent raises questions about public engagement and the efficacy of political representation in the North African nation. These elections not only reflect evolving party dynamics but also underscore the mounting societal demands for reform, particularly among the youth, who have been vocal about issues such as employment and education.

Morocco’s parliamentary elections held recently showcased a reconfiguration of power among the country’s main political parties amid a historically low voter turnout. Provisional results indicate that the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) has emerged as the largest party, securing 97 seats, a notable increase from 87 in the previous election in 2021. In contrast, the National Rally of Independents (RNI), which initially led the government after the last elections, experienced a substantial decline, falling from 102 seats to just 66. Similarly, the Istiqlal Party saw its representation drop from 81 to 65 seats, while the Justice and Development Party (PJD) experienced a remarkable resurgence, climbing from a mere 13 seats to 54.

The turnout for this election was recorded at only 38.08 percent of registered voters, down from 50.86 percent in 2021 and below the 42.27 percent in 2016. This decline in participation is indicative of broader social and political mobilization movements within Morocco, where citizens, particularly the youth, have been increasingly vocal about issues pertaining to employment, healthcare, education, and rising living costs. These grievances have manifested both in activism beyond the electoral process and in the shifting dynamics of political parties.

The elections resulted in a significant reshuffling of the governing party balance. The three parties that formed the outgoing government did not maintain their previous parliamentary weight. PAM’s gains of 10 seats stand in stark contrast to the RNI’s loss of 36 seats and Istiqlal’s 16-seat decline, marking a notable shift in the political landscape since 2021. This change opens up discussions regarding the potential formation of a new governing coalition.

Though PAM has assumed the lead role in the current parliamentary climate, it does not possess an outright majority. Under Article 47 of Morocco’s Constitution, the king appoints the head of government from the party with the most seats in the House of Representatives. This gives PAM the reins during the government formation process, yet it must engage in coalition building to secure a majority in the 395-member House, which necessitates at least 198 seats.

Jointly, PAM, RNI, and Istiqlal comprise 228 of the total seats, suggesting that they could potentially renew their coalition without additional partners. However, the underlying tensions from their campaigns, during which PAM and RNI exchanged accusations despite their collaborative governance over the past five years, could complicate coalition negotiations.

The PJD’s return to the forefront of Moroccan politics is also noteworthy, as it transitions from a dramatic decline in 2021 back to a position among the largest parties in parliament. With 54 seats, the PJD still falls short of its peak of 125 seats in 2016, positioning it as a significant player once again and reinforcing its role in the political discourse surrounding Morocco’s governmental future.

Another critical aspect of these elections is the strikingly low voter turnout, which raises questions about citizens’ engagement and trust in the electoral process. With varying participation rates across regions, notably as high as 77 percent in Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra and 61 percent in Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, the reasons behind nonparticipation merit further exploration. Factors contributing to this lack of engagement include dissatisfaction with established parties, economic concerns, and skepticism regarding the effectiveness of electoral politics, which may be influenced by demographics and regional disparities.

As Morocco grapples with these emerging political dynamics, the next steps in coalition negotiations will be crucial in determining how effectively the new government can address the pressing needs of its electorate and respond to the evolving demands of Moroccan society.

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