‘This time feels different’: One cannabis investment insider thinks the industry will keep rallying following the latest reports of regulatory changes – CNBC
A big rally in cannabis stocks Friday on reports that the administration may revamp marijuana’s Federal drug classification may herald the start of a new bull run, according to Tim Seymour, founder of Seymour Asset Management. A source told CNBC that President Donald Trump is expected to issue an executive order to reclassify marijuana as soon as Monday. The Washington Post reported earlier that Trump was poised to tell agencies to move cannabis to a less restrictive Schedule III drug from a Schedule I. Seymour, whose firm manages the Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) , said the change could allow banks and major U.S. exchanges to warm up to the industry even without complete legalization. That could pave the way for global institutional investors to begin buying the stocks. “Investors who are investing in cannabis now are absolutely in ahead of institutional capital, and that will be powerful when it comes in,” Seymour told CNBC Pro. “I’m not making any guarantees,” he added. “But there’s no question that we are still very early in the cannabis story.” Seymour said the industry as a whole sells for one times sales and 6.5-times adjusted EBITDA, meaning it’s “very cheap.” He also noted that the stocks still trade below August levels — when Trump previously raised a possible reclassification — even after Friday’s rally, underscoring further potential upside. The failure of the cannabis stocks to return to even their August highs, however, may signal the market’s reluctance to put much faith in the immediate benefits of a reclassification of pot. Take Tilray , for example. The stock surged more than 23% in midday trading Friday, but is still down more than 21% on the year. TLRY YTD mountain Tilray, year to date But, Seymour said “this time feels different.” That’s because the industry has been engaging Washington, to fully understand the implications of a scheduling change, which can include benefits such as looser taxation and increased investment interest. Reclassifying weed would group it with drugs such as steroids or Tylenol with codeine rather than heroin and LSD. Seymour said people flock to Tilray, which is in his ETF, because it is listed on the Nasdaq, making it easy to trade. But he said the fund also gives investors exposure to other stocks in the U.S. and overseas that are connected to the sale of marijuana, such as multistate operators Trulieve and Cresco Labs . Some big investors may struggle to understand the true size of the market given that there’s currently both legal and illegal sales, according to Seymour. But there’s broad agreement the sector is expanding, he said. “Even the most sophisticated analysts on the Street probably can’t tell you what ‘multiple’ cannabis should trade at,” Seymour said. “But what everyone is sure of is that it’s a growth industry.”
