2026 will bring more GLP-1 weight loss pills — and new habits. These stocks are poised to benefit – CNBC
The ripple is about to become a wave. Right now, there are numerous barriers for people who are considering treating their obesity with GLP-1 drugs. Early on, there were manufacturing bottlenecks that resulted in short supplies of Novo Nordisk ‘s Wegovy and Eli Lilly ‘s Zepbound. There were insurance coverage issues for these pricey treatments, particularly for older individuals who are enrolled in Medicare, which was banned from covering weight loss drugs. Then there was fear: Some people simply don’t like needles and wouldn’t consider the once-a-week injection. As 2026 gets underway, many of these hurdles are being knocked down. Prices are coming down , insurance access is growing and oral drugs are expected to hit the market . This means the number of people taking GLP-1 medications is about to swell. It’s great news for public health. However, it’s going to shake up consumer habits in a huge way, creating new opportunities for investors. New users Nearly a quarter of U.S. households used GLP-1 drugs on either a temporary or cyclical basis, according to market research published by Circana in November. The firm said most people take a GLP-1 for six to 12 months, with only 48.2% maintaining treatment for a full year. Cost was the reason most cited for discontinuing use, the study found. However, since patients tend to gain back weight when they stop taking the drugs, it is possible the duration of use could lengthen as costs come down and oral medications, which tend to be less expensive and easier to take, are introduced. “Based on our recent findings, … we predict that 35% of food and beverage units and 37% of nonfood units will be sourced from GLP-1 households by 2030, if today’s trends hold,” Circana said in its report. Bernstein biopharmaceuticals analyst Courtney Breen expects market segments to emerge as more GLP-1 products come to market. Those segments will reflect the circumstances of the patient and whether they are using an incretin drug for severe obesity, aesthetics or other conditions. “Today, GLP-1 receptor agonists have received approval for type 2 diabetes and obesity management (and some obesity-related conditions), but their journey is unlikely to stop there,” Breen wrote in a research note on Dec. 11. “GLP-1 receptor is widely expressed beyond the pancreas, with notable presence in the lungs, heart, brain, kidney, and GI tract. Given this biology & evidence to date, the GLP-1 market leaders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk (not covered) are investigating other potential indications for GLP-1 across multiple disease areas.” In a separate report, Breen said Lilly’s oral GLP-1, orforglipron , could be a great option for people looking to de-escalate their treatment from injectable GLP-1 drugs and expects it will make chronic weight maintenance more convenient. Those comments followed the release of clinical trial data from Lilly in mid-December. The Food and Drug Administration is reviewing Lilly’s trial data, and analysts expect the drug could be approved by the agency in March or April. Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 was already approved by the FDA in late December and is expected to hit the market in early January. Lilly shares are ending 2025 with a nearly 40% gain and the mantle of the first $1 trillion health-care stock. Novo Nordisk, which has reported disappointing financial results despite its lead in this space, is down nearly 40%. New habits GLP-1 drugs do lead to new habits. Oprah Winfrey, who began taking GLP-1 drugs more than two and half years ago, talked about her experience in an interview with People , published Tuesday. The media mogul and former talk show host is promoting a new book on obesity that she co-wrote with Dr. Ania Jastreboff and described a new upbeat outlook and habits, which include no longer drinking alcohol, she obtained. Winfrey also described an absence of so-called food noise. Circana’s findings back that up. The market researcher described a shift in what’s put in one’s shopping cart — fewer foods and beverages, but it saw more spending on oral and self-care products. Also, GLP-1 users are still dining outside the home, according to the data, but they are prioritizing protein-rich entrees, portion control and fiber, their research found. “This creates opportunity for [restaurant] concepts that can flex menus toward healthier, protein-forward, and smaller-portion offerings,” Goldman Sachs analyst Christine Cho wrote in her 2026 outlook for restaurant stocks. She cited Cheesecake Factory ‘s launch of bowls and bites , Darden Restaurant ‘s smaller portion menu tests and protein-packed coffees from Dutch Bros and Starbucks as examples of how companies can react. According to Cho, the typical GLP-1 user shifts more of their spending to casual dining chains where they perceive there to be more nutrient-rich options. Bonnie Herzog, a consumer staples analyst at Goldman, sees a parallel trend for packaged food and beverage companies that will put companies without healthier options at risk. In a note to clients with her 2026 outlook, Herzog called out NielsenIQ data that showed sales are growing faster for items that are located around the perimeter of the grocery store, where fresh fruits, vegetables, meat and fish are placed. “We believe this is driven by an increased focus on healthier food consumption and rising GLP-1 adoption could further widen the gap as consumers switch away from packaged food toward fresh/refrigerated food options,” Herzog wrote. She also noted that alcohol consumption should also decline. She said the trend favors Albertsons , Kroger and Sprouts Farmers Market and protein companies Hormel Foods , Smithfield Foods and Tyson Foods . Consumer staples companies are responding, and time will tell if they are able to hit the mark. Herzog called out PepsiCo’s planned innovation in the functional beverage space such as Muscle Milk with no artificial sweeteners or added colors, Starbucks Coffee & Protein and Propel Protein Water. Pepsi shares are ending 2025 down more than 5%, and Herzog said the bearishness in the stock is “over-done.” Restaurant and consumer staples stocks underperformed the market in 2025. The new year won’t bring an easy rebound to either group, according to the Goldman analysts. However, they do anticipate there is an opportunity for selected stocks to break from the pack. Cho sees the new habits of GLP-1 drugs to be an “emerging” theme for restaurants, with a greater impact on stock performance coming from bigger themes like affordability and a company’s ability to increase the number of restaurant locations to drive sales growth. “We continue to encourage investors [to] put new money to work in stocks with exposure to categories with attractive & profitable growth that should outpace broader Staples such as; energy drinks, nicotine, candy and beauty,” Herzog said.
