Bangladesh Election: Examining the Military’s Influence Behind the Scenes

As Bangladesh approaches its national elections on February 12, the term “Kochukhet” has emerged in public discourse as a metaphor for the military’s pervasive influence in civilian affairs. The upcoming vote follows a significant political upheaval in 2024, which saw the rise of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the interim leader after the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. While the military is not seeking direct political control, its role as a stabilizing presence amid lingering uncertainties about security and governance raises critical questions about the relationship between military power and civilian authority in the nation.

As Bangladesh gears up for its pivotal national elections on February 12, the discussions surrounding the influence of the military have taken center stage. The word “Kochukhet,” referring to a neighborhood that houses key military installations, has become a popular point of reference in debates about the military’s role in shaping the country’s political landscape. The elections mark the first since the dramatic upheaval of 2024 that culminated in the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the installation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

In contrast to historical precedents where the military directly seized power in times of political turbulence, the army today appears committed to a supportive role, serving as a guarantor of security as the nation prepares for voting. With public trust in the police undermined by past events, the military has taken on the responsibility of maintaining order, with estimates indicating the deployment of up to 100,000 troops. Proposed regulatory changes are also set to formally recognize the armed forces as essential law-enforcement agents during the elections.

This election is especially significant for the nation, home to more than 170 million citizens, as it is shaped by a history of political instability characterized by coups and military interventions. Analysts contend that while an overt takeover by the military is improbable, its institutional presence and embedded influence within various state apparatus enable it to shape political dynamics through intelligence networks and security operations.

Thomas Kean, the International Crisis Group’s senior consultant on Bangladesh, emphasized that the army has been bolstering the interim government not just politically but also by managing day-to-day security in a climate in which police forces have faced serious morale challenges. Analysts agree that the military’s primary aim is to facilitate a smooth electoral process and support the transition to an elected government, ensuring stability and restoring constitutional governance.

Past experiences of failed military interventions have taught the armed forces crucial lessons about governance; thus, it is likely they will avoid an aggressive approach towards political engagement this time. The military continues to be a critical player in Bangladesh’s political landscape, with its influence increasingly relying on informal channels rather than overt coercion. Its involvement in various state projects highlights a “corporate” mentality that complicates the military’s relationship with civilian authorities.

Historically, the military’s direct role in politics has fluctuated. Following the assassination of the nation’s founding leader, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in 1975, the military underwent periods of direct governance. The subsequent rise of political parties, like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party founded by Ziaur Rahman, illustrates the enduring influence of military figures on civilian governance.

Despite calls for adherence to political neutrality, the current military leadership has engaged in public commentary regarding the timeline of future elections, which some commentators view as crossing a line. Balancing its traditional role of maintaining order with modern demands for political impartiality is an ongoing challenge for the military.

Many observers argue that recent military engagements indicate an evolving institution that still bears the scars of previous volatile political situations. As discussions on the military’s place in politics continue, the hope remains that its influence will serve as a stabilizing force rather than an obstacle to civilian governance, ensuring that the desires of the electorate are prioritized over military interests.

The upcoming elections represent not just a transition in leadership but also a critical juncture for Bangladesh, as it endeavors to define the limits of military influence in a democratic framework. Ultimately, the success of this endeavor hinges on both military and political actors committing to a governance model that prioritizes accountability, transparency, and public trust.

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