Citi spells out 3 scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz — and where oil prices would go in each – CNBC
Oil prices could soar to $130 a barrel by the end of June if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, as Citi analysts outlined a number of possible scenarios facing oil markets. An oil market recovery hinges upon the full reopening of the strait, according to Citi analysts, ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for the end of the two-week ceasefire. Friday saw the brief reopening of the key shipping route in response to the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon, before Iran swiftly closed the strait again after President Donald Trump refused to lift the blockade of the country’s ports. West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery hovered around $89.40 per barrel on Tuesday, while international benchmark Brent crude futures for June delivery traded at $95.36 per barrel. WTI and Brent had settled 7% and 5% higher on Monday as uncertainty surrounding peace talks remained. Three possible outcomes on the Strait of Hormuz The best-case scenario for energy markets, the Citi analysts said in a Tuesday note, is if a ceasefire extension is signed this week and flows through the Strait gradually resume through May to reach pre-disruption levels by the end of June. In this scenario, Citi estimates global crude and product held in inventories would decline by roughly 900 million barrels . This would be consistent with international benchmark Brent oil prices averaging $95 a barrel in the second quarter, before falling to $80 and $75 in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, the analysts said. “Each day that passes we literally burn through around 13 million barrels of crude and oil products,” wrote global head of commodities research Max Layton. Citi wrote that global crude and product inventories are set to reach their lowest levels in eight years by the end of June, even if the conflict were to end this week. But Citi warned that, if flows through the Strait of Hormuz stay disrupted for an additional month, while maintaining diversions through Bab al Mandeb and Fujairah, then total losses could rise to an estimated 1.3 billion barrels. In this environment, the analysts see oil prices hitting $110 per barrel in the second quarter, before falling to $90 and $80 in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Citi said its worst-case scenario could happen if disruption continues eight to nine weeks from April 20, which would imply losses of approximately 1.7 billion barrels and push crude inventories to their lowest levels on record. Such prolonged disruption would see oil prices maintaining a level around $130 per barrel until the third quarter, before falling to $100 by the end of the year, Citi noted. Despite that possibility, Citi sees a resolution as hinging on the U.S., Iran, and several of their neighbors and allies “focusing on their aversion to a worst‑case scenario involving widespread destruction of energy infrastructure across the Middle East”. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday told CNBC the United States was “going to end up with a great deal” with Iran to end the war. “I think they have no choice,” Trump told ” Squawk Box ,” when asked what he expected to come out of a second round of peace negotiations with Iran. It was not immediately clear if Iran has agreed to participate in further peace talks. A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that there are no plans to attend negotiations with the U.S., multiple outlets reported.
