Oakland home values continue to fall — at one of the fastest rates in the nation – San Francisco Chronicle

Oakland home values have fallen to their lowest point in roughly a decade, and there’s little sign the market will heat up anytime soon.

The typical home value in Oakland was about $716,000 in March, according to the latest available data from real estate company Zillow. That reflected a year-over-year drop of more than $90,000, or 11.4%, after adjusting for inflation.

Among U.S. cities with at least 100,000 residents, Oakland was tied with Cape Coral, Fla. — which last year was dubbed the country’s worst housing market — for the starkest home value drop.

But Cape Coral’s home values were still about 10% higher than they were in March 2019. Oakland’s are down by 28%.

Oakland home values have been in freefall since mortgage rates spiked in 2022, when the typical value in the city peaked at about $1.1 million in 2026 dollars. The last time the city’s homes were valued this low was in 2015 (or 2017, if not adjusting for inflation).

Like in San Francisco, the hit that rising rates inflicted on Oakland’s housing market coincided with other trends that destroyed demand for homes in both cities — emptying downtowns, rising crime rates and a push toward the suburbs. Unlike San Francisco, Oakland hasn’t had an artificial intelligence boom to bring buyers roaring back.

That means sellers are under more pressure to drop prices, but it’s not clear that affordability has improved enough for first-time buyers. Zillow estimates that a mortgage for a mid-priced home in Oakland would cost about $3,680 a month with a 20% down payment, much more than the median household can comfortably afford — and much higher than typical rents. Bidding wars are still common in desirable neighborhoods like Rockridge and Elmwood, while houses and condos with lower price tags often require costly renovations or high monthly association fees.

“I don’t think it’s a question of crime stats or anything like that,” said Andrea Gordon, an East Bay Realtor with Compass. “I think it’s really, purely the economy at this point.”

Home values in the 94618 ZIP code, which includes Rockridge, changed the least from March 2025 to March 2026, declining by just 5%. That left it the city’s most expensive ZIP code with a typical home value of $1.62 million, according to Zillow’s data.

Neighborhoods like Rockridge, an affluent community known for its proximity to boutique stores and restaurants, are especially popular among young families with children, said Susie Wyshak, an East Bay real estate agent with Compass.

But tight inventory drives strong competition in the area, which for most of its history was zoned for single-family homes. The strongest bidders, real estate agents said, are those with money from family members or a previous home sale.

“People who are more money-conscious are going to be more hit by” economic factors, Gordon said. 

The housing market elsewhere in Oakland is much softer. Typical home values fell the most in Oakland’s downtown 94612 ZIP code, dropping by 16% from 2025 to 2026.

“I know several people who were like, ‘Can I break even if I sell my condo in downtown Oakland, next to Lake Merritt? ’” Wyshak said. “And they probably couldn’t.”

Part of the reason Oakland’s condo prices have fallen especially far is because renting is often much cheaper. Downtown Oakland experienced a boom of apartment construction before the pandemic, tamping down rents. For some households, said Leena Zeidan, an East Bay Realtor with Tuscana Properties, it’s not worth signing a mortgage that at current rates costs as much as rent — especially when it means condo association dues on top of it.

“Oakland is behaving (like) several little micro-markets rather than one market,” Zeidan said.