The Economic Impact of War on Sudan: Analyzing the Costs to the Nation’s Future

As Sudan continues to grapple with a protracted civil war, the consequences of the conflict have led to a staggering humanitarian and economic crisis. This turmoil not only threatens the stability of the nation but also casts a long shadow over the future of its citizens, marking a stark trajectory of loss and hardship. With over 40,000 lives claimed and millions displaced, Sudan’s plight serves as a crucial call to the global community to recognize and address the complexities of war-torn societies.

Three years into its civil war, Sudan has become unrecognizable, with more than 40,000 people killed, about 14 million of its citizens—representing a quarter of the population—forced to flee their homes, and extensive damage inflicted upon civilian infrastructure across the country. Luca Renda, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) resident representative in Sudan, remarked that the situation illustrates “the systematic erosion of a country’s future.”

A recent report by the UNDP and the Institute for Security Studies lays bare the scope of Sudan’s economic collapse since the war erupted in April 2023, precipitated by a power struggle between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Even under the most optimistic projections of peace by 2026, the report estimates Sudan could still incur an economic loss of approximately .8 billion in its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2043, shedding light on how the conflict has irrevocably altered the nation’s economic landscape.

The consequences of this strife extend beyond mere economic metrics. The destruction of Sudan’s infrastructure has imposed severe costs on daily life and economic operations. According to UNDP estimates, Sudan lost .4 billion in its GDP in 2023 alone, a figure reflecting the concurrent collapse of all major sectors of the economy, greatly exacerbated by widespread destruction. Farming, once the backbone of the economy and a source of income for many, has been heavily impacted, contributing to a 15 percent reduction in cultivated land. Urban centers have faced an industrial collapse by roughly 90 percent, resulting in mass job losses and the shuttering of businesses.

Moreover, essential services have deteriorated drastically. With up to 40 percent of power generation capacity lost and crucial water systems compromised, access to clean water and sanitation has become increasingly challenging. Disease outbreaks, including cholera, have surged as healthcare facilities struggle to operate, with fewer than 14 percent fully functional in conflict-affected zones. Tragically, thousands of schools have either closed or been damaged, disrupting the education of millions of children.

The war’s impact on Sudan’s labor market has been similarly alarming. Agriculture, once the lifeline for about 65 percent of the workforce, is now severely crippled. The informal economy, which many depend on for survival, is also shrinking due to resource shortages and extensive displacement. The ongoing displacement crisis has pushed more than 14 million people from their homes and eliminated both formal and informal means of earning a livelihood.

The conflict has ravaged the oil industry as well, with significant drops in output due to extensive infrastructure damage. The Khartoum refinery, which previously processed up to 100,000 barrels per day, has remained out of operation since July 2023, crippling Sudan’s fuel supply and exacerbating the country’s economic struggles.

Inflation has surged as well, driven by a collapse of the Sudanese pound and interrupted supply chains. The currency’s fall—from approximately 570 per dollar to around 3,600—has led to skyrocketing prices for basic goods and services. As a result, nearly half of Sudan’s population faces acute food shortages, with many unable to afford essential supplies. The war, therefore, has not just inflicted physical destruction but has also severely strained the economic fabric of society, threatening the very survival of its people.

As Sudan emerges from this conflict, the human cost remains stark. With 34 million individuals in need of assistance and millions of children facing disrupted education and healthcare, the toll of war manifests in tangible hardships that cannot simply be quantified by numbers. The choices made now will play a critical role in determining the trajectory of recovery for Sudan. Renda emphasized that every month of continued conflict deepens the structural damage, stressing that stopping the violence is the most urgent priority to pave the way for a hopeful future.

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