Middle East oil exports exceed pre-war levels amid ongoing regional tensions, new data reveals
In a significant development regarding maritime oil transport, crude oil exports from the Middle East have reportedly exceeded pre-war levels on multiple occasions in late September, as reported by a media source citing data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. The analysis indicates an upward trend in oil shipments, with figures surpassing previous traffic metrics on four out of the last seven days of the month.
However, amidst this backdrop, senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ali Fadavi, expressed skepticism regarding the current volume of oil transit through strategic waterways. In a televised interview, Fadavi stated that the flow of oil through these routes now stands at approximately three to four million barrels per day (bpd), a volume he characterized as “negligible” in comparison to the robust pre-war levels.
Fadavi also pointed out an absence of U.S. naval vessels in critical areas such as the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the northern Indian Ocean for the first time, claiming that U.S. warships are now “100 percent vulnerable” to potential IRGC operations. The commander’s comments come amid heightened tension and ongoing disputes over maritime security and oil transportation routes, which have become critical battlegrounds in the region.
Kpler’s data revealed that on September 24, crude oil exports from the region rebounded dramatically, averaging between 19.5 and 22.5 million bpd from September 27 to 29, marking a notable increase compared to previous months. Prior to the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel, the region’s exports were maintained at an average of 18 million bpd.
By October 1, the seven-day moving average indicated that crude exports had settled at approximately 18.5 million bpd, accounting for various transit methods and shipment types within the Gulf of Oman. The trend has also seen an uptick in the number of liquefied natural gas cargoes departing from the Strait of Hormuz, which saw its highest monthly figures since February.
Exclusion of vessels that disable their automatic identification systems for operational secrecy may affect the reliability of these figures. Furthermore, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in and around the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since early October, pointing to sustained maritime insecurity in the region. Iran’s top negotiator has emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until the United States acknowledges Tehran’s stipulations for reopening the crucial shipping lane.
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